论文部分内容阅读
虽然近期增长动能偏弱,但离底部已经不远。虽然近期增长动能偏弱,但离底部已经不远。外部需求短期难有显著改善,从PPI的走势看,库存变动对GDP的拖累在三季度可能继续。然而,当前经济运行中也有一些正面因素,使我们相信增长进一步下行的空间不大。近期公布的7月份宏观经济数据中,工业增加值、进出口、新增贷款低于市场预期,显示经济增长的动能仍然偏弱。但是固定资产投资和社会零售实际增速平稳,显示国内最终需求尚好。如何解释生产端的指标(工业生产)和需求端的指标(固定资产投资和社会零售)的矛盾?
Although the recent momentum of growth weaker, but not far from the bottom. Although the recent momentum of growth weaker, but not far from the bottom. External demand is difficult to significantly improve the short term, from the PPI trend, inventory changes in GDP drag in the third quarter may continue. However, there are some positive factors in the current economic operation, which make us believe there is not much room for further growth growth. In the recently released macroeconomic data of July, the added value of industrial, import, export and new loans were lower than market expectations, indicating that the momentum of economic growth is still weak. However, the real growth rate of investment in fixed assets and retail sales has been steady, which shows that the final domestic demand is still good. How to explain the contradiction between the indicator (industrial production) on the production side and the index on the demand side (investment in fixed assets and social retail)?