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舰船机电系统在使用维修过程中所记录的故障数据通常质量不高,信息记录不完整、不准确。针对这类不完备数据,利用图示法给出故障趋势的判定。在此基础上,分别利用齐次泊松过程、非齐次泊松过程和几何过程,对装备的历史故障数据进行分析。结果表明,几何过程产生的拟合误差最小,可预测装备的未来故障强度。
The fault data recorded by the marine electromechanical system in the course of using and repairing is usually not high quality, the information record is incomplete and inaccurate. In view of such incomplete data, using the graphic method to give the judgment of the fault trend. On the basis of this, the historical fault data of equipment are analyzed respectively using homogeneous Poisson process, non-homogeneous Poisson process and geometric process. The results show that the geometric error generated by the smallest error, equipment can predict the strength of the future failure.