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本文基于统计数据,对房地产开发与信贷资产组合风险进行实证研究,结果表明,房价波动对银行业房地产开发信贷资产构成显著影响,房价越高则坏账率越高。但房价向上波动时,并没有显著提高房地产信贷资产的比例即风险暴露水平。此外,房地产信贷资产质量受到SHIBOR的影响较为显著,SHIBOR作为银行的融资成本,当融资成本处于上升区间时,房地产开发信贷资产的风险暴露水平提升,同时坏账率也随之上升。这说明在银行融资成本上升时,房地产开发行业因其能够接受较高的借贷成本,故在银行信贷资产池中占据了更大的份额,但同时坏账率相应提高,资产质量下降。
Based on the statistical data, this paper conducts an empirical study on the real estate development and credit asset portfolio risk. The results show that the volatility of housing prices has a significant impact on the banking real estate development credit assets. The higher the housing prices, the higher the bad debt ratio. However, when house prices fluctuate upward, there is no significant increase in the proportion of real estate credit assets that is the level of risk exposure. In addition, the quality of real estate credit assets is more affected by the impact of SHIBOR. SHIBOR as the financing cost of banks. When the financing cost is in the rising range, the risk exposures of real estate development credit assets increase, and the bad debt ratio also increases. This shows that as the cost of bank financing increases, the real estate development industry accounts for a larger share of the pool of bank credit assets because of its ability to accept higher borrowing costs, but at the same time the bad debt ratio has been raised correspondingly and the quality of assets has been declining.