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运用协整分析、误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量分析工具,对我国公共投资与宏观经济增长的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,由公共物质资本投资、人力资本投资及研发投资构成的公共投资与国内生产总值具有长期的正向均衡关系,但贡献率较低;公共研发投资与经济增长关系很弱,且不存在双向格兰杰因果关系。因此,我国在增加公共投资总量的同时,要着重对公共投资结构进行优化,加大对科技创新、教育和卫生的投资力度。
Empirical analysis is conducted on the relationship between public investment and macroeconomic growth in China by using such tools as cointegration analysis, error correction model, impulse response function and variance decomposition. The results show that the public investment composed of public physical capital investment, human capital investment and R & D investment has a long-term positive equilibrium relationship with GDP, but the contribution rate is relatively low; the relationship between public R & D investment and economic growth is weak, and There is no two-way Granger causality. Therefore, while increasing the total amount of public investment, our country should focus on optimizing the public investment structure and increasing investment in science and technology innovation, education and health.