论文部分内容阅读
全球多区域可计算一般均衡模型(computable general equilibrium,CGE)是最重要的全球气候政策评估工具之一。该文给出了自主开发的全球多区域可计算一般均衡模型(global applied general equilibrium model,GAGE)的理论框架,描述了区域内框架的地区账户收入分配方案和生产模块的嵌套结构以及区域间框架的国际贸易结构和2个虚拟国际机构的构建,即建立国际运输部门和国际银行用于描述国际贸易的运输服务供需以及投资的区域间流动。在标准GAGE模型的基础上进行了能源-环境-经济扩展,以描述能源与资本之间以及各类能源之间的替代关系。碳减排情景研究结果验证了GAGE模型理论框架的合理性,展示了能源替代对于减排潜力的显著影响。
The global multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) is one of the most important global climate policy assessment tools. This paper presents the theoretical framework of a globally-developed global applied general equilibrium model (GAGE) developed independently and describes the regional account revenue distribution scheme and the nested structure of production modules within the region as well as the inter-region Framework of international trade and the construction of two virtual international agencies, namely, the establishment of inter-regional flows of supply and demand of transport services by international transport agencies and international banks for the description of international trade and investment. Based on the standard GAGE model, an energy-environment-economy expansion has been carried out to describe the substitution between energy and capital and between various types of energy. The results of the carbon mitigation scenario validate the rationality of the GAGE model theoretical framework and demonstrate the significant impact of energy substitution on mitigation potential.