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目的探讨应用回归残差法进行麻疹突发公共卫生事件预警的可行性。方法利用国家疾病监测信息报告管理系统历史数据,运用回归残差法的基本思路,建立统计方法预警模型。对四川省南充市麻疹2007年突发公共卫生事件做回顾性预警分析。结果 2007年南充市麻疹发病超过控制阈值共有25个周,共通过国家突发公共卫生事件报告管理信息系统报告突发公共卫生事件12起,其中10起在预测周序内,麻疹突发公共卫生事件预警灵敏度为83.33%,特异度为37.50%,阳性似然比为1.33,阳性预测值为40.00%。结论当发病数较多时,回归残差法可作为麻疹突发公共卫生事件的一种预警方法。
Objective To explore the feasibility of early warning of public health emergency of measles using regression residual method. Methods Based on the historical data of the national disease surveillance information reporting management system and using the basic idea of regression residual method, a statistical early warning model was established. Retrospective Early Warning Analysis of 2007 Public Health Emergency of Measles in Nanchong City, Sichuan Province. Results In 2007, the incidence of measles in Nanchong City exceeded the control threshold for a total of 25 weeks. A total of 12 public health emergencies were reported through the National Public Health Emergencies Reporting Management Information System, of which 10 were within the predicted sequence of measles public health emergencies The sensitivity of early warning event was 83.33%, the specificity was 37.50%, the positive likelihood ratio was 1.33 and the positive predictive value was 40.00%. Conclusion When the incidence is high, the regression residual method can be used as an early warning method for public health emergency of measles.