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基于马尔科夫二次规划方法,对1998—2012年黑龙江森工林区林业产业结构进行有序度测算,并对未来几年该区域林业产业结构进行预测。结果表明:运用马尔科夫二次规划模型作出的预测平均误差为3.1446%,在5%可接受的范围内;2009—2012年间,该区域产业结构有序度值依次介于0.94~0.98、0.93~0.96以及0.92~0.96之间。说明近年来黑龙江省林业产业结构发展方向是正确的,且森工林区林业产业结构不断得到优化、升级。并针对研究结果及黑龙江森工林区林业产业发展现状提出优化策略。
Based on Markov’s quadratic programming method, the orderly degree of forestry industrial structure in Heilongjiang forestry forest area from 1998 to 2012 is calculated, and the forestry industrial structure in this area is predicted in the next few years. The results show that the average forecast error of prediction using Markov’s quadratic programming model is 3.1446%, which is within 5% of the acceptable range. Between 2009 and 2012, the ordinal degree of industrial structure in this region is between 0.94 and 0.98 and 0.93 ~ 0.96 and 0.92 ~ 0.96. It shows that the direction of forestry industrial structure development in Heilongjiang Province is correct in recent years and the industrial structure of forestry industry in Forest District has been continuously optimized and upgraded. And based on the research results and forestry in Heilongjiang forestry industry development status of the proposed optimization strategy.