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近年来,民众一方面认为政府对房价的管制政策效果很差,且预期评价并不乐观;另一方面,却又要求强化这种管制政策,使政府无法实施市场与保障相区分的政策。民众的这种矛盾的诉求,就是在房地产政策取向上的一种认知偏差(大致属于锚固,即anchoring cognitive bias),于是从理论和经验上有必要回答,这种认知偏差的原因何在。根据锚固形成的可能性,通过对中国大陆5个地区(上海、安徽、河北、江苏和四川)个样本调查数据进行的计量估计表明,民众对房地产政策有效性的主观概率、对政府管制政策的依赖性和框架效应是影响民众认知偏差的主要因素。
In recent years, on the one hand, people think that the government’s policy on housing price control is ineffective and its assessment is not optimistic; on the other hand, it requires strengthening such a control policy so that the government can not implement the policy of differentiating the market from its guarantee. This contradictory appeal of the people is a kind of cognitive deviation (generally anchored cognitive bias) in the real estate policy orientation. Therefore, it is theoretically and empirically necessary to answer why this cognitive deviation occurs. Based on the possibility of formation of anchors, the econometric estimates of a sample of five mainland China regions (Shanghai, Anhui, Hebei, Jiangsu and Sichuan) show that the public’s subjective probability of the effectiveness of real estate policies is negatively affected by the government regulation policy Dependency and framework effects are the main factors that affect people’s cognitive bias.