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考虑旅客选择行为和运输供给间的相互影响关系,设计了基于供需匹配的两阶段客流分担率计算方法。第一阶段从旅客出行意愿出发,考虑旅客选择行为的差异和不同通道内客流结构的差异,建立分客流类型、分列车等级的客流分担率计算模型;第二阶段从运输供给出发,基于旅客效用值设计了客流转移概率的计算方法,并基于此给出客流分担率的修正方法。以武广通道为例,对本文提出的方法进行了验证分析。结果表明:基于运输供给修正后的客流分担率与实际客流分担率更为接近。
Considering the interaction between passenger selection behavior and transportation supply, a two-stage passenger flow sharing rate calculation method based on supply-demand matching is designed. In the first phase, based on the traveler’s willingness to travel, taking into account differences in passenger choice behavior and differences in passenger flow structure between different routes, a passenger flow sharing rate calculation model based on passenger flow type and train grade is established. In the second phase, from the transportation supply, The method of calculating the transfer probability of passenger flow is designed, and based on which, the correction method of passenger flow sharing rate is given. Take Wu Guang Pass as an example, the method proposed in this paper is validated and analyzed. The results show that the revised passenger flow sharing rate based on the transportation supply is closer to the actual passenger flow sharing rate.