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传统以煤为主的能源结构导致电力产业扩张的同时,必然会出现较为严重的环境污染和资源消耗的客观约束。从具有较多可再生能源的能源组合可减少系统对未来不确定化石燃料供给和价格带来的风险的角度,将金融投资领域中的投资组合理论引入,具体以风电为例,将电源结构看成一种投资组合,对我国电源结构的优化组合进行量化研究。同时从可能影响发电结构风险的资源耗竭、环境污染、技术进步以及宏观经济政策等四个因素,对电源结构的优化组合进行敏感性分析,得到量化比较结果。
The traditional coal-based energy structure led to the expansion of the power industry at the same time, there will inevitably be more serious environmental pollution and resource consumption objective constraints. From the point of view of reducing the system’s risk to the uncertain supply and price of fossil fuels in the future, the energy portfolio with more renewable energy sources introduces the investment portfolio theory in the field of financial investment. Taking wind power as an example, Into a portfolio, the optimal combination of power structure of China’s quantitative research. At the same time, the sensitivity analysis of the optimal combination of power supply structure is carried out from the four factors of resource exhaustion, environmental pollution, technological progress and macroeconomic policies, which may affect the risk of power generation structure structure, and the result of quantization comparison is obtained.