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目的拟合Serfling回归模型,估计广州市2011―2016年流感相关的超额流感样病例(ILI)数。方法收集“广州市突发公共卫生事件监测与预警系统”中2011―2016年的ILI监测数据与“国家传染病报告信息管理系统”的流感病例网报数据,分析2种数据的相关关系;同时拟合Serfling回归模型,估计超额ILI数。结果 2011年第9周至2016年第29周广州市流感病例网报数为57 642例,同期,全市19所哨点医院报告ILI监测数为2 242 332例;广州市ILI监测数与流感病例网报数呈正相关(r=0.57,P<0.01)。回归模型显示282周中共有84个流行周,超额ILI监测数总计为322 509(95%CI:204 346~440 672)例,各年度超额ILI监测数分别为37 197(95%CI:14 547~59 846)、52 432(95%CI:29 980~74 885)、21 846(95%CI:9 244~34 448)、74 880(95%CI:46 867~102 893)、75 138(95%CI:59 705~90 570)和61 016(95%CI:44 003~78 030)例,占同期实际ILI监测数的10.88%(95%CI:4.26%~17.51%)、13.31%(95%CI:7.61%~19.01%)、5.87%(95%CI:2.49%~9.26%)、17.35%(95%CI:10.86%~23.84%)、16.56%(95%CI:13.16%~19.96%)和24.47%(95%CI:17.65%~31.30%)。<15岁年龄组及≥15岁年龄组超额ILI监测数分别占同期ILI监测数的13.23%和19.63%。结论 2011―2016年广州市每年流感流行周均能造成数万例超额ILI,由于≥15岁年龄组超额ILI监测数比例较高,可造成较高的疾病负担。
Objective To fit the Serfling regression model to estimate the number of influenza-related cases of excess influenza (ILI) in Guangzhou from 2011 to 2016. Methods We collected data of ILI monitoring data from 2011 to 2016 and epidemic case report of “National Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System” from “Guangzhou Public Health Emergency Monitoring and Early Warning System” to analyze the data of two kinds of data Correlation; At the same time fitting Serfling regression model to estimate excess ILI number. Results There were 57,642 reported cases of flu in Guangzhou from the 9th week of 2011 to the 29th week of 2016. In the same period, the number of ILI surveillance reported by 19 sentinel hospitals in the city was 2 242 332; the number of ILI surveillance and influenza cases in Guangzhou Reported a positive correlation (r = 0.57, P <0.01). The regression model showed that there were 84 epidemic weeks out of 282 weeks. The total number of excess ILI surveillance was 322 509 (95% CI: 204 346 to 440 672). The number of excess ILI surveillance in each year was 37 197 (95% CI 14 547 ~ 59 846), 52 432 (95% CI: 29 980-74 885), 21 846 (95% CI: 9 244-34 448), 74 880 (95% CI 46867- 102 893), 75 138 95% CI: 59 705-90 570) and 61 016 (95% CI: 44 003- 78 030), accounting for 10.88% (95% CI: 4.26% -17.51%) and 13.31% (95% CI: (95% CI: 7.61% to 19.01%), 5.87% (95% CI: 2.49% to 9.26%), 17.35% (95% CI: 10.86% to 23.84%), 16.56% %) And 24.47% (95% CI: 17.65% ~ 31.30%). The excess ILI surveillance in the 15-year-old group and the 15-year-old group accounted for 13.23% and 19.63% of the ILI surveillance in the same period, respectively. Conclusion In 2011-2016, annual flu pandemic in Guangzhou caused tens of thousands of excess ILI each year. As a result of the high proportion of excess ILI surveillance in the age group of ≥15 years, a high disease burden could be caused.