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从研究基础和模型建立的理论基础角度对城市交通与土地利用之间的关系进行综合评述,并提出已有四种代表性模型中普遍存在的缺陷.在此基础上,介绍加拿大学者近年来的研究成果,即基于24小时个人行为和活动的非集计动态ILUTE模型.应用2008年北京市居民出行2809份调查样本数据对出行方式选择行为进行模拟.参数估计采用遗传算法和蒙特卡洛模拟法.结果显示:小汽车、公共交通、自行车、步行、出租车以及搭乘等六种出行方式的样本数据观测值与模型预测值的绝对误差百分比分别为0.52%,1.95%,0.77%,0.79%,0.16%,2.29%;模型拟合度达到0.759,精确度较高,能够很好地描述出行者的出行方式选择行为.最后提出对此模型的本土化研究展望.
Based on the theoretical basis of the research foundation and model building, this paper gives a comprehensive review of the relationship between urban transport and land use, and presents the common defects in the four representative models.On the basis of this, The research results, that is, the non-collective dynamic ILUTE model based on 24-hour personal behaviors and activities, simulated the selection of travel modes with the survey data of 2809 residents in Beijing in 2008. The parameters were estimated by genetic algorithm and Monte-Carlo simulation The results show that the absolute error of the predicted value of the sample data and the predicted value of the model are 0.52%, 1.95%, 0.77% and 0.79% respectively for the six modes of travel such as cars, public transport, bicycles, walking, taxis and boarding, 0.16% and 2.29%, respectively, and the model fitting degree is 0.759, which shows that the model has a high degree of accuracy and can well describe the travel choice behavior of travelers. Finally, the localization of this model is proposed.