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为准确预测道路断面的安全性,建立道路交通事故断面事故率模型。首先选定事故率作为微观预测目标,选取驾驶员的驾龄、车道数、平曲线半径、纵坡度、路面情况、路口路段类型、道路宽度7项因素作为主要影响因素,并且将各影响因素分为若干类目。在数量化理论的基础之上建立改进的数量化理论的道路断面事故率预测模型,最后以某国道222.888～377.387 km段作为算例进行计算,并选取事故多发段333.5～334.0 km处对模型进行具体应用。研究结果表明,对事故影响最大的是该路段中三枝交叉口,其次是3 a(含3 a)以下驾龄及四枝交叉口。
In order to accurately predict the safety of the road section, a road accident accident rate model is established. First select the accident rate as a micro-forecast target, select the driver’s driving experience, the number of lanes, flat curve radius, longitudinal gradient, the road conditions, the type of road junctions, the road width of seven factors as the main influencing factors, and the impact of factors are divided into Several categories. On the basis of quantitative theory, an improved predictive model of road section accident rate based on quantitative theory is established. Finally, a national highway 222.888 ~ 377.387 km section is taken as an example to calculate the accident rate of 333.5 ~ 334.0 km application. The result of the study shows that the three roads with the most serious impact on the accident are followed by 3-year (including 3-year) and four-lane intersections.