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本文建立了供水系统震害预测专家系统，把计算分析方法和专家经验相结合，形成了知识库 和推理判断．其中，计算方法考虑了管段的地震反应机理和管上相互作用的特征，包括在地震地质 灾害场地的管道震害预测方法。经验判断来源于震害数据和专家经验，较全面地考虑了影响管道震 害的主要因素．在ＧＩＳ软件平台上形成了专用程序，界面友好，数据交换方便，已应用于实际工程．
In this paper, an expert system for earthquake damage prediction of water supply system has been established, which combines the computational and analytical methods with the expert experience to form a knowledge base and reasoning judgment. Among them, the calculation method takes into account the seismic response mechanism of the pipe segment and the characteristics of the pipe-tube interaction, including the method of pipeline damage prediction in seismic geological disaster sites. Judgment of experience comes from earthquake damage data and expert experience, and more comprehensively considers the main factors affecting pipeline damage. In the GIS software platform to form a dedicated program, friendly interface, convenient data exchange, has been applied to the actual project.