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选取1990-2006年间重庆市4个环境污染指标与经济增长指标,首先采用Johansen协整检验证明经济增长与环境污染物排放量间存在着长期稳定的关系,并以此建立向量自回归模型(VAR).然后应用VAR模型考察了重庆市经济增长与环境污染在时序维度上的相互影响机制和动态关联效应.结果表明,一方面,经济增长是影响重庆市污染排放量变化的重要原因,另一方面工业废水、工业粉尘、工业SO2、工业固体废弃物排放量的增加对经济增长也存在着反作用力.经济增长指标对解释环境污染指标排放的预测方差分解的贡献度较高,环境污染指标排放对经济增长指标的预测方差的解释贡献度较小.
Four indicators of environmental pollution and economic growth in Chongqing from 1990 to 2006 were selected. First, the Johansen co-integration test was used to prove that there was a long-term and stable relationship between economic growth and environmental pollutant emissions. Based on this, a VAR model ) Then, VAR model is used to examine the mutual influence mechanism and dynamic correlation effect between economic growth and environmental pollution in Chongqing in terms of time series.Results show that on the one hand, economic growth is the important reason that affects the change of pollution discharge in Chongqing, In terms of industrial waste water, industrial dust, industrial SO2 and industrial solid waste, there is also a reaction force to economic growth.Economic growth indicators contribute more to explain the variance decomposition of the prediction of environmental pollution indicators emission, and the emission of environmental pollution indicators The explanatory variance of the forecast variance of the economic growth index is less.