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★利率上升很可能令房地产泡沫破灭。实际负利率已导致英语地区城市的房地产价格浮现泡沫,以及在中国的城市出现房地产数量泡沫。如实际利率转为正数,两个或者其中的一个泡沫可能破灭。★假如美联储能保持加息步伐异常缓慢,两个泡沫有望不破。假如美联储每季仅调高25 个基点,两个泡沫有望不破。假如美联储每季加息50 个基点,依我所见,两个泡沫都将破灭。★只有美联储在下降周期内不放松银根,世界才会不再有泡沫。自1985 年广场协定(Plaza Accord)签订以来,由于政策制定人利用刺激需求以掩盖需要进行结构性改革的事实,世界出现了一个接一个的泡沫。如果美联储在下降周期内不放松银根,全球经济可最终走出这个恶性循环。
★ Rising interest rates are likely to burst the real estate bubble. The real negative interest rate has led to a bubble in real estate prices in cities in English-speaking cities and a bubble in real estate numbers in cities in China. As the real interest rate turns positive, two or one of the bubbles may burst. ★ If the Fed can keep the pace of interest rate increases unusually slow, the two bubbles are expected to not be broken. If the Fed increases only 25 basis points quarterly, the two bubbles are not expected to break. If the Federal Reserve increases interest rates by 50 basis points quarterly, as I see it, both bubbles will burst. ★ Only the Federal Reserve will not relax its financial system during the downward cycle, and the world will no longer have a bubble. Since the signing of the Plaza Accord in 1985, bubbles emerged one after another as policymakers used stimulus demand to cover the need for structural reforms. If the Fed does not ease its monetary downturn, the global economy will eventually get out of this vicious circle.