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鉴于水库汛期分期设计是充分利用水库洪水资源的重要手段,以红枫水库为例,在实测系列洪水中加入历史特大洪水,采用超定量方法取样,用混合Von Mises分布拟合洪水发生时间,建立了基于二维Frank Copula函数的洪水发生时间与量级的联合分布,推求分期设计洪水,进而进行了调洪计算,确定了水库汛期分期方式为汛前期(5月1日~5月31日)、主汛期(6月1日~7月31日)、汛末期(8月1日~9月30日),并在满足防洪标准的前提下,确定了各分期汛限水位分别为1 239.1、1 236.5、1 239.6m。
Taking the Hongfeng reservoir as an example, the flood of history is added to the flood of historic floods, and the samples are taken by over-quantification method. The mixed Von Mises distribution is used to fit the flood occurrence time to establish The joint distribution of time and magnitude of flood occurrence based on two-dimensional Frank Copula function is deduced to design flood by staging, and then flood regulation calculation is carried out. The staging method of flood season of reservoir is determined as early flood season (from May 1 to May 31) , The main flood season (June 1 to July 31), the end of the flood season (August 1 to September 30), and under the premise of meeting the flood control standards, the flood control water levels of each stage were determined to be 1 239.1, 1 236.5,1 239.6m.