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由于缺乏成熟的农民工统计制度,对于改革开放30多年来,每年我国外出农民工的数量,约40%年份的数据是缺失的。最小一乘解,是在全部数据中依据准则选取特征数据来实现的。将农民工数量中3个权威数据作为最小一乘法特征数据,按照最小一乘准则,绘制出我国改革开放以来外出农民工数量的变化曲线。结果表明,30多年来我国外出农民工数量的增长可以用Richards生长模型和一种新的指数+幂指数混合生长模型来共同描述;增长过程是一个没有峰或谷的连续递增,在1995-1998年间出现一个变化的拐点,使加速的增长转变为减速的增长;2014年外出农民工数量将达到1.71亿,按1.6倍率相乘,农民工总数为2.73亿;按目前发展趋势2021年外出农民工数量将出现高点1.88亿,折算成农民工总数为3.0亿,之后将呈现缓慢下降趋势。
Due to the lack of a mature statistical system for migrant workers, the number of migrant workers going out in China and the data of about 40% of the total annual migrant workers is missing for more than 30 years of reform and opening up. The least-squares solution is to select the feature data according to the criteria in all the data. The three authoritative data of the number of migrant workers as the least-one-factor characteristic data, according to the least-one-rule, draw the curve of the number of migrant workers since the reform and opening up. The results show that the growth of migrant workers going abroad in more than 30 years can be described by a combination of Richards growth model and a new index + power index mixed growth model. The growth process is a continuous increase without peak or valley. In 1995-1998 A turning point in the years of change, so that accelerated growth into a deceleration of growth; in 2014 the number of migrant workers will reach 171 million multiplied by 1.6 times the total number of migrant workers was 273 million; according to the current trend of development in 2021 migrant workers The number will appear 188 million high, converted into a total of 300 million migrant workers, after which it will show a slow downward trend.