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研究洞庭湖区血吸虫病人水相互作用关系及传染防控,是推进湖区社会经济稳定健康发展的重要保障。从水文情势、产业发展、居民行为、城乡建设四方面探讨了洞庭湖区血吸虫病疫水人水相互作用关系,并运用系统动力学模型,设置教育优先方案、生态保护优先方案和城镇化推进方案对其防控方案进行系统仿真模拟和对比分析,研究结果表明:(1)水文等生态因素对于人水接触的影响逐步减少,而社会经济因素则显得越来越重要。(2)系统动力学模型能有效展示血吸虫病各影响因素之间的关系,是研究血吸虫病防控的有效方法之一。(3)依据仿真模拟结果,城镇化推进方案是经济增长、城乡协调、环境友好的最优血防方案。
Studying the water interaction and infection control of schistosomiasis in Dongting Lake area is an important guarantee to promote the stable and healthy socio-economic development in the lake area. This paper discussed the relationship between water and human water in schistosomiasis of Dongting Lake from four aspects of hydrological situation, industrial development, resident behavior and urban-rural construction. By using system dynamics model, setting priority programs of education, priority programs of ecological protection and urbanization promotion programs, The results show that: (1) The impact of hydrological and other ecological factors on human water contact is gradually reduced, while the socio-economic factors are more and more important. (2) System dynamics model can effectively display the relationship between the various factors of schistosomiasis, is one of the effective ways to study the prevention and control of schistosomiasis. (3) Based on the simulation results, the urbanization promotion plan is the optimal blood-prevention plan for economic growth, urban-rural coordination and environment-friendly.