图书流通受多种不确定因子影响,内部状态难以定数论规律描述,属于灰色系统的范畴,介于此特征,研究以灰色预测GM(1,1)模型为主要研究方法,以“汇文文献信息服务系统”的图书借阅原始数据为研究样本,对高校图书馆的流通趋势进行科学预测,为高校图书馆制定合理的采访工作计划,减少采访工作的主观性,为提升采访工作的精确度提供依据,保证采访工作更贴近读者需求,从而提高馆藏建设的质量。 Book circulation is affected by a variety of uncertain factors, the internal state is difficult to describe the law of fixed numbers, belong to the category of gray system, in this feature, the study of gray forecasting GM (1,1) model as the main research method to Documentary information service system, "the original book borrowing data for the study sample, the university library circulation trend of scientific prediction, for the university library to develop a reasonable interview plan, to reduce the subjectivity of the interview, in order to enhance the accuracy of the interview Degree to provide the basis to ensure that the interview closer to the reader’s needs, thereby enhancing the quality of collection construction.