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以是否被特别处理为财务危机标志,利用我国上市公司近几年的年报财务数据,选取了财务危机和健康企业各50家作为开发样本.首先研究了开发样本财务指标的数据特征和财务危机出现前3年内这两类企业的财务指标的显著性差异,其后利用因子分析法筛选了8个指标作为建立模型的自变量,运用Logistic模型构建了上市公司财务危机预测模型,并对估计样本的40家企业进行了检验.实证分析结果表明:其一,我国上市公司财务比率不服从正态分布;其二,尽管我国资本市场的会计数据质量不尽人意,但财务数据仍具有一定的信息含量;其三,利用开发样本构建的Logistic模型在财务危机发生前1年和前2年有比较高回判准确率,估计样本在财务危机发生前1年和前2年有比较高的预测准确率.
Whether or not it has been specially dealt with as a sign of financial crisis, using the annual report financial data of listed companies in China in recent years, 50 financial crisis and 50 healthy companies have been selected as development samples. First, the data characteristics of development sample financial indicators and the appearance of financial crisis have been studied. In the first three years, the significant differences in the financial indicators of these two types of companies were followed by the use of factor analysis to screen eight indicators as the independent variables for the establishment of the model. The Logistic model was used to construct the forecasting model of the listed company’s financial crisis, and the sample was estimated. Forty companies conducted inspections. The empirical analysis results show that: First, the financial ratio of China’s listed companies does not obey the normal distribution; Second, although the quality of accounting data in China’s capital market is not satisfactory, financial data still have certain information content. Thirdly, the logistic model constructed using the development sample has a relatively high accuracy in the first year and the first two years before the financial crisis. It is estimated that the sample has a relatively high prediction accuracy in the first year and the first two years before the financial crisis. .