黄淮海地区光、热、水资源较丰富,气候-土壤资源的生产潜力较大。本文在对作物各层次生产力计算方法研究的基础上,对该地区冬小麦、夏玉米、夏大豆、棉花等作物各层次生产力进行了计算。初步认为,在一定的农业技术水平条件下,近期(2000年以后)粮棉生产力比1989年可增加1/3,远期(30～50年以后)可增加1倍或稍多。 The Huang-Huai-Hai region is rich in light, heat and water resources, and its climate and soil resources have a great potential for production. Based on the research on the calculation methods of crop productivity at all levels, this paper calculated the productivity of various levels of crops such as winter wheat, summer maize, summer soybean and cotton in the area. It is preliminarily believed that the productivity of grain and cotton in the near future (after 2000) will increase by 1/3 over that in 1989 under the condition of a certain level of agricultural technology, and may be double or a long term (30 to 50 years later).