一、引言纵观历史,人类社会就一直致力于设计各种制度,以分析并应对饥荒、传染病、洪水和战争等各种传统风险。然而,随着现代社会工业化和城市化的发展,社会所面临风险的数量不断增多,复杂性不断加深。针对这种发展趋势,人们也越来越希望权威当局能够有效地评价和处置这些风险。不幸的是,现代历史见证了无数 I. INTRODUCTION Throughout history, human society has been devoted to devising systems that analyze and respond to traditional risks such as famines, epidemics, floods and wars. However, with the development of industrialization and urbanization in modern society, the number of social risks is constantly increasing and the complexity is deepening. In response to this trend of development, people also increasingly hope that the authorities can effectively evaluate and deal with these risks. Unfortunately, modern history has witnessed countless