论文部分内容阅读
智力资本在知识经济时代对企业的发展至关重要.本文考察Pulic智力资本评测模型是否能够用于企业财务危机预警.首先基于2003年至2007年中国A股市场新增ST公司样本及配对样本的前三年数据对Pulic模型综合指标进行单变量分析证实了该模型的预警可行性,然后根据三项因素驱动指标分别运用多元判别、逻辑回归、神经网络和最小二乘支持向量机方法建立预警模型进行回判和外推.结果表明,Pulic模型在ST前两年具有较高的判断准确性,可以通过对智力资本的考察而预知企业未来的财务状况.
Intellectual capital plays an important role in the development of enterprises in the era of knowledge economy.This paper investigates whether Pulic intellectual capital evaluation model can be used in early warning of financial crisis.Firstly, based on the new sample of ST companies and matching samples in Chinese A-share market from 2003 to 2007 The univariate analysis of the comprehensive index of Pulic model in the first three years of data validates the feasibility of this model and then establishes the early warning model based on the three factors driven index using multivariate discriminant, logistic regression, neural network and least square support vector machine The results show that the Pulic model has a higher accuracy of judgment in the first two years of ST and can predict the future financial status of the enterprise through the investigation of intellectual capital.