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分析了程潮铁矿矿坑涌水对大气降水的响应特征,通过大气降水-矿坑涌水互相关函数值,研究了不同滞后期大气降水对矿坑涌水的影响程度。建立了基于时间序列分析的大气降水-矿坑涌水传递函数模型的预测方法。利用最小二乘法对传递函数部分进行参数估计,并对残差序列进行自回归处理,平均误差低于3.26%。预测模型在一定程度上能够反映出矿坑涌水对大气降水的滞后和相关关系,适用于采用崩落法或上覆围岩裂隙破碎带发育的地下矿山。
The response characteristics of mine gushing water in Chengchao Iron Mine to the atmospheric precipitation are analyzed. Through the correlation between atmospheric precipitation and gushing water gushing water, the effect of atmospheric precipitation on mine gushing water in different lag periods is studied. A prediction method based on time series analysis for atmospheric precipitation-gushing water transfer function model was established. The least square method was used to estimate the parameters of the transfer function and the residual error was less than 3.26%. To some extent, the prediction model can reflect the hysteresis and correlation of mine gushing water on precipitation and is suitable for underground mines that are developed by caving method or overlying fractured rock of surrounding rock.