四季轮回,汇改一年。汇改之初,北京欧赛机械进出口公司总经理展莉菲曾向本刊记者抱怨说升值太突然,企业准备不足。国内一些学者(复旦大学世界经济研究所所长华民教授)也认为,升值可能给国内企业带来某些恶果,如创新无力(创新难以抵消升值新增的成本),企业出口利润空间被压缩,职工工资水平下降,消费能力下降,经济增长动力随之降低等。实际情况回答了上述担心。全国外汇系统9省市抽样调查显示,2005年7月人民币一次性升值2%,一些企业的出口收入遭受汇兑损失,直接冲减了利润,导致企业平均出口利润率从第二季度的3.61%下降到第三季度的2.98%。进入第四季度后,企业开始逐渐适应了新的汇率机制,尝试调整产品结构,同时注意运用国际结算、贸易融资工具和远期结售汇等合理避险,出口利润率开始转升,并超过汇改前的水平,达到5.07%。汇改一年后的今天,汇率风险已成为各类企业极度关注的超级词汇。盘点各类企业应对汇率风险的外汇“兵法”,上市公司、跨国集团、中小企业,各有损有益,有亏有赢。上市公司:通过上市公司的年报数据披露和财务信息分析,可以发现汇改一周年来企业的盈利能力并未受到明显影响,外贸增势依然强劲,汇改前途依然广阔。跨国集团:应对汇率风险有较丰富经验。出口价格、数量以及利润率是在母公司的总体销售策略下综合考虑决定的,生产经营、资金运作和盈利情况是母公司全球战略决策的一部分,子公司不是作为一个完全独立的个体承担所有的汇率波动风险,汇率弹性较低。中小企业:因长期习惯了较为固定的汇率制度,汇率风险防范意识不强,出口结算币种的选择上单一化,外贸议价能力较弱,产品价格调整空间小,缺乏主动利用汇率工具规避风险能力。……回首一年,中国企业应对汇险已经迈出坚实的第一步。 Four seasons of reincarnation, exchange reform a year. At the beginning of the exchange reform, Zhan Lifei, general manager of Beijing Ousai Machinery Import & Export Company, complained to the reporter that the appreciation was too sudden and the company was not ready enough. Some domestic scholars (Prof. Hua Min, director of the Institute of World Economics at Fudan University) also believe that the appreciation may bring some consequences for domestic companies, such as innovation is weak (innovation can hardly offset the added cost of appreciation), corporate export profit margins are compressed The level of wages of employees has declined, their spending power has declined, and the economic growth momentum has been reduced. The actual situation answered the above concerns. According to a sample survey of 9 provinces and cities across the country’s foreign exchange system, the Renminbi appreciated by 2% in July 2005, and some companies’ export revenues suffered foreign exchange losses, which directly reduced profits, causing the average export margin of enterprises to decline from 3.61% in the second quarter. It was 2.98% in the third quarter. After entering the fourth quarter, enterprises began to gradually adapt to the new exchange rate mechanism, trying to adjust the product structure, while paying attention to the use of international settlement, trade financing tools and forward settlement and other reasonable hedges, export profit margins began to rise, and exceeded The level before exchange reform reached 5.07%. One year after the exchange reform, exchange rate risk has become a super vocabulary that all kinds of companies are extremely concerned about. The foreign exchange “war art” in which various types of enterprises are dealing with exchange rate risks, listed companies, multinational corporations, and small and medium-sized enterprises are all profitable and profitable. Listed company: Through the annual report data disclosure and financial information analysis of listed companies, we can see that the profitability of the company has not been significantly affected in the past year, and the growth of foreign trade is still strong. The future of the exchange reform is still broad. Multinational Group: Has rich experience in dealing with exchange rate risks. The export price, quantity, and profit rate are comprehensively considered and decided under the parent company’s overall sales strategy. Production, operations, and profitability are part of the parent company’s global strategic decision. The subsidiary does not assume all of its obligations as a fully independent entity. Exchange rate fluctuation risk, exchange rate flexibility is low. SMEs: Due to a relatively long-term habit of a relatively fixed exchange rate system, the lack of awareness of exchange rate risk prevention, the choice of export settlement currency, the weak bargaining power of foreign trade, the small space for product price adjustment, and the lack of active use of exchange rate instruments to avoid risk . ... Back in the first year, Chinese companies have already taken a solid first step in dealing with foreign exchange insurance.