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2016年经济运行将稳中趋缓,可预期新涨价因素较弱,预计CPI上涨1.5%左右,走势前低后高;PPI下跌4.5%左右,跌幅逐渐缩小。年内PPI与CPI背离趋势仍将延续,结构性通缩风险难以彻底解除。为此,要以政策合力化解通缩风险,维持适度宽松的货币政策环境,适当扩大财政赤字规模,切实发挥政府投资带动作用,推动“三黑一色”行业形成化解产能过剩的长效机制,切实防范工业领域的结构性通缩演变为全面通缩,防范区域性速度与效益螺旋下滑演变为全国大面积的降速失效问题。
In 2016, the economic operation will slow down steadily and we expect the new price inflation will be weaker. The CPI is expected to rise by about 1.5% and the trend will be low and then high. The PPI will decrease by 4.5% or so. During the year, the trend of deviation between PPI and CPI will continue and the risk of structural deflation will be completely lifted. To this end, it is necessary to work together with policy to resolve the risk of deflation, maintain a moderately loose monetary policy environment, appropriately expand the scale of the fiscal deficit, effectively promote the government investment and promote the long-term mechanism for overcapacity in the “three blacks and the white” Effective prevention of structural deflation in the industrial sector has evolved into an overall deflation and prevention of regional speed and efficiency. The spiral decline has evolved into the problem of large-scale decelerating failure in the entire country.