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近日盛传一则消息:国际投资银行瑞士信贷波士顿第一公司驻新加坡首席经济学家巴素指出,中国目前高达15-20％的投资增长,将加剧产能过剩和通缩危险。认为“中国目前正面临潜在危机爆发点。这个获得最热络资本流通的地区,将会是下一个危机发生的地区”。 另一个著名投资银行摩根大通虽然说得没有这样可怕,但其日前公布的经济报告也指出, “中国经济出现过热情况”,并有可能“导致进一步的产能扩张和加重通货紧缩压力”。 这种判断和分析有多少根据?实际情况又是如何?带着这些问题本刊记者走访了国内外著名研究部门和机构,期望从站在中国经济研究最前沿的专家、学者那里找到问题的真相。
Recently a message is widely circulated: Bahrain, chief Singapore-based economist with Credit Suisse, the international investment bank, said that China’s current 15-20% investment growth will exacerbate the risk of overcapacity and deflation. That “China is currently facing the eruption of a potential crisis, and that this region, which receives the hottest circulation of capital, will be the area where the next crisis will take place.” Although another well-known investment bank JP Morgan Chase does not have such terrible, but its recent economic report also pointed out that “China’s economy was overheated” and is likely to “lead to further capacity expansion and aggravate the pressure of deflation.” With these judgments and analysis how much basis? The actual situation is? With these problems reporter visited the famous research departments and agencies at home and abroad, looking forward to standing from the forefront of China’s economic research experts and scholars where to find the truth of the problem .