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以荆南三口五站1951~2015年实测径流数据,利用Mark-Kendall趋势突变检验法、累计距平、Morlet复小波等方法分析三口河系径流演变特征;选用ARIMA模型和时间序列模型预测荆南三口河系径流演变趋势。结果表明:(1)荆南三口径流年际变化较大,径流年内分配不均匀,5~10月为丰水期,11月~次年4月为枯水期,呈现出明显季节差异;(2)三口径流总体上呈下降趋势,其中以1959~1980年径流下降趋势最为明显,其趋势幅度p的绝对值达到了698.313,2003~2015年径流下降趋势较为缓慢,无明显趋势,但其p的绝对值仍达到了166.524;(3)运用Mark-Kendall突变检验及累计距平法共同检验,三口径流突变年份为1970年、1985年;(4)1951~2015年间三口径流变化过程主要存在48~58 a、20~28 a、10~18 a 3个尺度的周期变化,以55 a、24 a、14 a为周期中心,其小波方差显示三口径流序列第一、第二、第三主周期分别为55 a、24 a、14 a;(5)三口径流在2016~2030年呈现出先减小后增大的趋势,即2016~2018年为波动增减期,2019~2026年前后为枯水期,2026~2030年为丰水期。
Based on the measured runoff data of three stations in Jingnan from 1951 to 2015, the runoff evolution characteristics of the three river systems were analyzed by Mark-Kendall trend mutation test, cumulative anomaly, Morlet complex wavelet and so on. The ARIMA model and time series model were used to predict Jingnan Runoff evolution trend of three rivers. The results showed that: (1) The annual variation of runoff in Jingnan three was large with uneven distribution of runoff during the year, from May to October for the wet season and from November to April for the dry season, showing obvious seasonal differences; (2) The three runoffs showed a downward trend as a whole, of which the runoff reduction trend was the most obvious from 1959 to 1980, and the absolute value of the trend amplitude p reached 698.313. From 2003 to 2015, the trend of runoff reduction was relatively slow with no obvious trend, but its absolute p (3) Mark-Kendall mutation test and cumulative distance test were used together to test the three-year runoff abrupt change year 1970 and 1985 respectively. (4) There were mainly 48-58 years of runoff change between 1951 and 2015 a, 20 ~ 28 a, and 10 ~ 18 a, with 55 a, 24 a and 14 a as the periodic center. The wavelet variance shows that the first, second and third main periods of the three- 55 a, 24 a, 14 a; (5) The runoff of three rivers showed a trend of decreasing firstly and then increasing from 2016 to 2030, that is, fluctuating fluctuation period from 2016 to 2018, dry season from 2019 to 2026, 2030 for the wet period.