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通过对甘肃省近60年来气象资料和历史资料的搜集和整理,根据陇南山地区、陇中黄土高原区、甘南高原区、河西走廊区、祁连山地区和河西走廊以北地区6个不同的区域的资料研究了ENSO事件对甘肃气候的影响。通过对降水量、气温、自然灾害事件等气候因子与ENSO事件的特征进行对比统计分析得出,ENSO事件对甘肃季风区的降水量的影响表现十分明显,在陇南山地、陇中黄土高原和甘南高原这3个地区影响突出。厄尔尼诺事件常常使降水量明显减少,拉尼娜事件常使甘肃季风区降水量有所增加,且都存在一定滞后性,但对河西走廊、祁连山地和河西走廊以北地区影响不明显。60年来在厄尔尼诺事件向强拉尼娜事件转换年在甘肃季风区都引起了日降水量超过50mm的暴雨灾害。ENSO事件对甘肃气温的影响明显,强度要大于对降水量的影响。厄尔尼诺事件常使甘肃地区气温明显升高(包括年极端最高气温),拉尼娜事件常造成甘肃大部地区气温降低,对增温有显著减弱作用。ENSO事件对甘肃各地高低温灾害作用都要大于对洪涝灾害的作用,厄尔尼诺年高、低温和旱涝灾害发生概率都要大于拉尼娜年灾害发生概率,对陇南山地区的气象灾害影响最强,一定要加强该区气象监测和地质灾害预防工作。
According to the collection and arrangement of meteorological data and historical data of Gansu Province in the recent 60 years, according to the data of 6 areas including Longnan Mountain, Longzhong Loess Plateau, Gannan Plateau, Hexi Corridor, Qilian Mountain and north of Hexi Corridor The data studied the impact of ENSO events on climate in Gansu. Through comparative statistical analysis of the climatic factors such as precipitation, temperature and natural disasters and the characteristics of ENSO events, it is concluded that the ENSO event has significant effect on the precipitation in the monsoon region of Gansu Province. In Longnan Mountains, Longzhong Loess Plateau and Gannan The three plateau high impact. El Niño events often caused a significant decrease in precipitation. La Niña events often caused an increase in precipitation in the monsoon area of Gansu Province, with some lag. However, there was no obvious effect on the areas north of Hexi Corridor, Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor. In the 60 years since the transition from El Niño to La Niña in the monsoon region of Gansu in the past 60 years, torrential rain events with daily precipitation over 50 mm have been caused. The impact of the ENSO event on the temperature in Gansu Province is obvious, and its intensity is greater than the impact on precipitation. El Niño events often cause a significant increase in temperature in Gansu (including extreme maximum temperatures in years), and La Nina events often result in a decrease in temperature in most parts of Gansu and a significant reduction in warming. The effect of ENSO events on the disasters of high and low temperature in Gansu Province should be greater than that of floods and floods. The probability of El Niño annual high, low temperature and droughts and floods should be greater than that of La Nina, and the strongest impact on Longnan mountain meteorological disasters To strengthen the meteorological monitoring and geological disaster prevention work in the area.