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[目的]揭示黄土高原区中尺度流域径流对气候和土地利用变化的响应规律,为合理解决流域水资源利用和实现水资源的可持续管理提供理论支撑。[方法]以黄土高原藉河流域为研究对象,采用Mann-Kendall检验、距平累积曲线、双累积曲线以及分离评判法等方法进行研究。[结果](1)1962—2010年藉河流域年降雨呈下降趋势,但下降趋势不显著(p>0.05);流域年径流深呈显著下降趋势(p<0.001),且在1985年发生减少突变;(2)坡耕地面积减少,梯田面积增加是研究时段内流域土地利用变化的最明显特征。[结论]研究时段内土地利用变化是藉河流域径流量减少的主要驱动因素,影响贡献率为90.2%,而气候变化影响较小,贡献率仅为9.8%。
[Objective] The research aimed to reveal the response of mesoscale watershed runoff to climate and land use change in the Loess Plateau, and provide theoretical support for the reasonable solution of the utilization of water resources in the basin and the sustainable management of water resources. [Method] With the Manchu-Kendall test, averaging accumulation curve, double cumulative curve and separation evaluation method as the research object, the loess basin in the Loess Plateau was studied. [Results] (1) The annual rainfall in the river basins dropped from 1962 to 2010, but the downward trend was not significant (p> 0.05). The annual runoff depth decreased significantly (p <0.001) and decreased in 1985 Mutation; (2) The decrease of cultivated land area and the increase of terrace area are the most obvious characteristics of the land use change during the study period. [Conclusion] The change of land use during the research period was the main driving factor to reduce the runoff by the river basin. The contribution rate was 90.2%, while the impact of climate change was small, with a contribution rate of only 9.8%.