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本文通过对宏观税负的来源和构成进行数据分解,实证测算了改革开放以来我国产业结构变迁对税收超速增长的贡献。测算结果表明:(1)分税制改革后宏观税负变动中产业结构变动的影响程度在不断降低。(2)分税制改革以后,各产业自身税负率的变动对宏观税负增长的影响不断增强,这一变动主要是由于第二、第三产业税负率的不断上升,第一产业税负率不断下降所引起的,换言之,第二、三产业自身税负率的不断提高是我国近年来税收收入超速增长的主要原因。
Based on the data decomposition of the source and composition of the macro tax burden, this paper empirically estimates the contribution of the industrial structure change in our country to the rapid tax growth since the reform and opening up. The results show that: (1) the impact of changes in industrial structure in the macro tax burden changes after the tax-sharing reform is declining. (2) After the tax-sharing reform, the impact of changes in the tax burden rate of various industries on the growth of the macro-tax burden has been continuously enhanced. This change was mainly due to the continuous increase in the tax burden rates of the secondary and tertiary industries, In other words, the continuous improvement of the tax rate of the secondary and tertiary industries is the main reason for the rapid growth of tax revenue in our country in recent years.