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水资源承载力评价是把水资源利用和生态环境问题综合考虑的一种研究手段,其结果可以用来清晰判断一个区域经济社会的发展潜力。在层次分析法和变异系数法组合赋权的基础上,运用基于PSO优化的升半Γ型分布指数,对2003~2013年江苏省的水资源承载力进行评估。结果表明,太湖蓝藻事件爆发是促进江苏水资源承载力提高的重要转折点,2003~2008年江苏水资源承载力处于Ⅱ级承载力水平,均值为0.414,2009年起提升至Ⅲ级水平,此后承载力水平虽略有波动,但始终处于Ⅲ级的最高状态。对比江苏城镇化进程,认为注重两型社会和生态文明建设的城镇化进程可以较大幅度提升水资源的承载力。据此,提出通过供给侧改革转变经济发展模式、全员参与推进节水型社会建设以及统筹协调加强太湖流域管理等对策。
The evaluation of water resources carrying capacity is a kind of research method which comprehensively considers the utilization of water resources and ecological environment. The results can be used to clearly judge the development potential of a region’s economy and society. Based on the combination of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and coefficient of variation (VAR) method, the water resources carrying capacity of Jiangsu Province from 2003 to 2013 was estimated by using the half Γ distribution index based on PSO optimization. The results showed that the outbreak of cyanobacteria in Taihu Lake was an important turning point to promote the carrying capacity of water resources in Jiangsu Province. From 2003 to 2008, the water resources carrying capacity of Jiangsu Province was at the level Ⅱ carrying capacity with an average value of 0.414. Although the level of power fluctuations, but always in the highest level Ⅲ. Comparing the process of urbanization in Jiangsu, we think that the process of urbanization that focuses on the construction of a two-oriented society and ecological civilization can greatly enhance the carrying capacity of water resources. Accordingly, the countermeasures such as transforming the mode of economic development through supply-side reform, participating in the promotion of water-saving society by all employees and coordinating and strengthening the management of the Taihu Lake Basin are put forward.