１引言我国现代海平面变化的系统研究，开始于８０年代前后，主要集中于海平面年变率和预测．早期所采用的方法有直线回归法、周期法外推预测等，之后有本征分析方法、随机动态预测模型及灰色系统方法等，以上方法各有利弊，但都因为不能较精确得到海平面变化中的各种周期... 1 Introduction The systematic study of the modern sea level changes in China began in the 1980s and mainly focused on the sea-level annual variability and prediction. The methods used in the early stage include linear regression and periodical extrapolation, followed by eigenanalysis, stochastic dynamic prediction and gray system methods. These methods have their advantages and disadvantages, but they all fail to obtain the sea level change more accurately In various cycles ...