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本文希望通过对收集的数据的计量分析,找到货币发行量与房地产商品住宅价格之间的关系。本文运用的计量方法有ADF平稳检验、AEG协整检验、ECM误差修正模型以及格兰杰因果检验。本文的结论是:货币发行量的确是房地产商品住宅价格的格兰杰因,即货币发行量包含了可以预测房地产商品住宅价格的有效信息。更进一步,结合实际,得出:货币发行量是房地产商品住宅价格的逻辑因。
This paper hopes to find the relationship between the circulation of currency and the price of real estate commodity housing through the econometric analysis of collected data. The measurement methods used in this paper are ADF stationary test, AEG co-integration test, ECM error correction model and Granger causality test. The conclusion of this paper is that the currency circulation is indeed Granger of the real estate commodity housing price, that is, the currency circulation contains valid information that can predict the housing price of the real estate commodity. Further, combined with the actual, come to: money circulation is the logic of real estate commodity prices.