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城域突发事故灾害发生机理涉及事故灾害致因、演化过程、发展规律3个主要方面;从典型事故致因理论入手,探索城域突发事故灾害致因有本质原因、基础原因和直接原因;事故致因要素之间的综合作用是城域突发事故灾害发生机理研究的关键,可考虑建立与之对应的数学模型,运用突变理论,对演化过程进行分析,指出城域突发事故灾害演化是一个流变-突变过程,并满足尖点突变模型,引发因素和控制因素两个参数决定事故状态的变化;总结城域突发事故灾害的发展规律,指出城域突发事故灾害沿链条传递,并呈现一定周期性,研究成果可为事故灾害的预防与控制提供借鉴。
The mechanism of accident in metropolitan area is related to the causes, evolvement and development of accident. The paper starts with the theory of cause of a typical accident and explores the cause, basic reason and direct cause of metro cause of accident . The comprehensive effect of accident cause factors is the key to the research on the mechanism of accident in metro area. It can be considered to establish the corresponding mathematical model and use the catastrophe theory to analyze the evolution process and point out the disaster accident Evolution is a rheological - mutation process, and cusp catastrophe model to meet the two factors that trigger and control factors determine the state of the accident; summary of the development of metro disaster emergency, pointed out that the metro accident disaster along the chain Pass, and show a certain periodicity, the research results can provide reference for the prevention and control of accident disasters.