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文章采用1996-2014年省际面板数据构建区域随机前沿生产函数模型,从劳动异质性视角拓展要素替代弹性分析;并首次联合运用协整方程和误差修正模型,从长期均衡和短期波动过程分析来揭示要素替代约束对经济增长的影响。结果发现:尽管三大区域各自的要素替代弹性变化显著不同,但要素替代弹性的增长效应却彼此具有一致性。其中,东部地区的资本-劳动替代弹性明显地存在着0.805的增长门槛,只有西部地区的资本-劳动替代弹性越过了门槛值,与区域增长具有尚不显著的正相关性而支持德拉格兰德维尔假说;三大区域的资本-技能互补性提高对经济增长的推动作用都不明显;劳动-技能替代弹性则表现为显著的正向增长效应,显示出各区域存在着人力资本红利。值得注意的是,与均衡增长路径上“资本-劳动替代弹性提高能够推动经济增长”的德拉格兰德维尔假说不同,在考虑劳动异质性和技术非效率的前提下,中国地区增长更支持“劳动-技能替代弹性提高能够推动经济增长”的结论。文章为甄别新常态下的区域增长潜力转变、剖析要素匹配合理性及产业结构调整可行性奠定基础。
In this paper, we build a stochastic frontier production function model using provincial panel data from 1996 to 2014, and extend the elemental elasticity of substitution from the perspective of labor heterogeneity. We also use the cointegration equation and error correction model for the first time. From the perspective of long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation analysis To reveal the impact of factor substitution constraints on economic growth. The results show that although the substitution elasticity varies significantly among the three regions, the growth effects of substitutional elasticity of substitution are consistent with each other. Among them, the capital-labor substitution elasticity in the eastern region obviously has a growth threshold of 0.805. Only when the capital-labor substitution elasticity in the western region surpasses the threshold value and has an insignificant positive correlation with regional growth supports Dellagran Deville hypothesis; the increase of capital-skill complementarity in the three regions is not obvious for promoting economic growth; labor-skill elasticity of substitution shows a significant positive growth effect, showing that there is a human capital dividend in all regions. It is noteworthy that unlike the Delaware-Wilhelm hypothesis that the “capital-labor substitution elasticity can promote economic growth” in the path of balanced growth, considering the heterogeneity of labor and the inefficiency of technology, China The growth also supports the conclusion that “labor-skills substitution elasticity enhancement can promote economic growth.” The article lays the foundation for screening the change of regional growth potential in the new normal, analyzing the rationality of factor matching and the feasibility of industrial restructuring.