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介绍了关于项目风险管理基本理论及项目风险识别、项目风险估计、项目风险评价和风险处理的主流方法。在总结风险管理理论和方法的基础上,针对农民集中居住区项目风险管理影响因素复杂、繁多等特点,结合实际需要,根据农民集中居住区项目区别于其他项目的特殊性,按照风险识别、估计、评价及应对措施的思路,采用专家打分、层次分析法(AHP)和模糊综合评价等模型和方法,对扬州市邗江区公道镇农民集中居住区项目建设期风险进行了研究。在风险评价的基础上,对邗江区公道镇农民集中居住区项目建设期风险提出了具体的应对措施。
Introduced the basic theory of project risk management and project risk identification, project risk assessment, project risk assessment and risk management of the mainstream method. Based on summarizing the theory and method of risk management, according to the characteristics of complex and numerous risk factors of rural residential area project, according to the actual needs, according to peculiarities of rural residential area project different from other projects, according to risk identification and estimation , Evaluation and countermeasures, using the methods of expert scoring, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the risk of construction period of farmers’ residential area in Gongdao Town, Hanjiang District, Yangzhou City was studied. Based on the risk assessment, specific countermeasures are put forward for the risk during the construction period of the farmers’ residential area in Gongdao Town, Qijiang District.