如何估算武器的杀伤能力和战斗的胜负?这是许多军事研究人员、参谋和指挥人员很想知道的问题。美国《陆军》杂志曾在1977年5月和1979年2月先后发表了两篇有关文章,题目是《预测奇袭的要素──一种可用数字表示的变量》和《武器杀伤能力之研究》。作者是一位美国军事历史学家、退休陆军上校。他提出了“理论杀伤指数”、“实际杀伤指数”和“定量判断模式”的概念,及计算敌对双方总战斗潜力的方法,并公布了有关资料,对我们了解、研究这个问题有参考价值。 How to estimate the lethality of weapons and the outcome of the battle? This is what many military researchers, staff officers and commanders want to know. In May 1977 and February 1979, the United States Army Army published two articles on “predicting the elements of a surprise attack - a variable that can be expressed by numbers” and “the study of the lethality of weapons.” The author is a U.S. military historian who retired from the Army. He put forward the concepts of “theory of lethality index”, “actual destruction index” and “quantitative judgment mode” and the method of calculating the total fighting potential of the two sides hostile to each other and published the relevant materials which are of reference value for us to understand and study this issue.