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2001年底,受世界三大经济体同时出现经济滑坡以及“9·11”事件的影响,各主要机构纷纷预测2002年世界经济将陷入衰退,石油需求将疲软,油价会总体走低。但事实出乎预料,自年初以来,油价在震荡中全面升温,1～6月份WTI、布伦特和米纳斯原油平均价格,分别达到每桶24.17、23.64和23.06美元,比2001年下半年上涨了1～2美元。现在2002年时间已过半,大家普遍关心的问题是:上半年影响油价的主要因素,如美国经济走势、中东局势、俄罗斯的石油出口政策及欧佩克产量政策会对下半年的油价走向产生什么影响,下半年国际油价将会如何变化。带着这些问题,本刊记者对行业内外的几位专家、学者进行了采访,请他们发表了各自的看法。
By the end of 2001, due to the simultaneous economic downturn and the “September 11” incident in the world’s three largest economies, all major agencies predicted that the world economy will fall into recession in 2002, oil demand will be weak and oil prices will generally fall. However, unexpectedly, since the beginning of the year, oil prices have been warming up completely in the shock. The average prices of crude oil for WTI, Brent and Minas in January-June reached 24.17, 23.64 and 23.06 US dollars respectively, up from the second half of 2001 Up 1 to 2 dollars. At present, over half of the time in 2002 is the issue of common concern: the main factors affecting oil prices in the first half of the year, such as the trend of the U.S. economy, the situation in the Middle East, Russia’s oil export policy and OPEC’s output policy will have an impact on the oil price trend in the second half of the year, In the second half of the international oil prices will be how to change. With these questions, our correspondents interviewed several experts and scholars both inside and outside the industry and asked them to express their opinions.