The mechanical parameters of materials in a dam body and dam foundation tend to change when dams are reinforced in aging processes. It is important to use an early-warning index to reflect the safety status of dams, particularly of heightened projects in the impoundment period. Herein, a new method for monitoring the safety status of heightened dams is proposed based on the deformation monitoring data of a dam structure, a statistical model, and finite-element numerical simulation. First, a fast optimization inversion method for estimation of dam me-chanical parameters was developed, which used the water pressure component extracted from a statistical model, an improved inversion objective function, and a genetic optimization iterative algorithm. Then, a finite element model of a heightened concrete gravity dam was established, and the deformation behavior of the dam with rising water levels in the impoundment period was simulated. Subsequently, me-chanical parameters of aged dam parts were calculated using the fast optimization inversion method with simulated deformation and the water pressure deformation component obtained by the statistical model under the same conditions of water pressure change. Finally, a new early-warning index of dam deformation was constructed by means of the forward-simulated deformation and other components of the statistical model. The early-warning index is useful for forecasting dam deformation under different water levels, especially high water levels.