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本文通过构建包括货币供应机制的DSGE模型,分析了中国政府购买支出和公共投资支出的乘数效应,发现两类财政支出对私人消费和私人投资都产生了挤出效应,公共资本的产出弹性低是产生挤出效应的结构性原因,在中国货币供应机制减小对通货膨胀负向反应和增大对产出正向反应的配合下,政府购买支出和公共投资支出能够对私人消费和私人投资产生正向的挤入效应。
By constructing a DSGE model that includes the money supply mechanism, this paper analyzes the multiplier effect of Chinese government purchasing expenditure and public investment expenditure. It finds that both types of fiscal expenditure have crowding-out effect on private consumption and private investment, and the output elasticity of public capital Low is the structural cause of the crowding-out effect. With China’s monetary supply mechanism reducing the negative reaction to inflation and increasing the positive reaction to output, government spending on purchases and public investment can benefit both private consumption and private investment Investment has a positive crowding-in effect.