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城市燃气系统是一个动态的不确定性系统,燃气事故发生具有随机性。运用灰色理论预测城市燃气事故,以上海市市北地区燃气死亡统计数据为原始数据,建立灰色预测模型,同时对模型的可靠性和准确性进行了检验。根据灰色理论模型GM(1,1)建立的城市燃气死亡事故预测模型为(?)~(1)(k+1)=1962e~(0.048k)-1860。模型检验结果表明,关联度r=0.682 5>0.6,通过关联度检验;模型预测精度σ=97.8%达到最好;后验差比C=0.42,P=1,对照灰色预测精度检验等级标准,检验精度达到Ⅱ级,接近Ⅰ级。研究表明,城市燃气死亡事故预测模型还可用于安全工作成效性评价。
City gas system is a dynamic system of uncertainty, gas accidents occur with randomness. By using gray theory to predict urban gas accidents and using the statistics of gas deaths in the north of Shanghai Municipality as the raw data, a gray forecasting model was established and the reliability and accuracy of the model were tested. According to the gray theoretical model GM (1,1), the forecast model of urban gas accident is (?) ~ (1) (k + 1) = 1962e ~ (0.048k) -1860. The results of model test showed that the correlation degree r = 0.682 5> 0.6, which passed the test of correlation degree; the prediction accuracy of the model was reached to be 97.8%, the best was achieved; the posterior difference was C = 0.42, P = Test accuracy reached Ⅱ level, close to Ⅰ level. The research shows that the urban gas accident prediction model can also be used to evaluate the effectiveness of safety work.