论文部分内容阅读
就GDP的CO2排放强度下降率、GDP能源强度下降率、能源消费的CO2排放因子下降率、非化石能源在能源品种构成中增长率等影响减缓CO2排放的因素间的相互关系进行了数学推导和计算,进而测算了我国从1990~2005年GDP能源强度下降的影响因素中,技术节能的贡献率约为56%,而结构节能的贡献率44%。2005~2020年情景分析方案中,对促进GDP的CO2强度下降的贡献因素中,技术节能约为43%,结构节能约为37%,而能源结构改善的贡献率也可达20%,可再生能源和先进核能技术的发展对未来减缓CO2排放将起越来越重要的作用。同时文中还分析了CO2排放实现零增长和负增长目标时各项相关指标需达到的条件。
The mathematical derivation of the correlation between the factors influencing CO2 emission mitigation such as the declining intensity of CO2 emission intensity, the declining energy intensity of GDP, the declining CO2 emission factor of energy consumption and the growth rate of non-fossil energy in the composition of energy varieties Then, from the factors affecting the decline of GDP energy intensity from 1990 to 2005 in our country, the contribution rate of energy-saving technology is about 56%, while the contribution rate of energy-saving structure is 44%. Among the contributing factors in reducing the CO2 intensity of GDP in 2005-2020 scenario analysis, the technical energy-saving is about 43%, the structural energy saving is about 37%, and the contribution of energy structure improvement is up to 20% The development of energy and advanced nuclear energy technologies will play an increasingly important role in mitigating CO2 emissions in the future. At the same time, the paper also analyzes the conditions for the relevant indicators of CO2 emissions to achieve zero growth and negative growth targets.