中国第三季度G D P同比增长7.3%,低于第二季度的7.5%和第一季度的7.4%,但略高于市场预期的7.2%。第三季度环比增长折合年化率为7.8%,低于第二季度的8.2%。同比与环比增长同时显示,第三季度经济动能减弱(见图1)。笔者预计,持续低迷的房地产市场以及经济中存在着其他诸多不利因素,将使得第四季度的中国经济依然面临较大的下行压力。但这也是中国经济进行长期结构调整的必然结果。整体看,第三季度的出口复苏对经 China’s GDP in the third quarter increased 7.3% YoY, down from 7.5% in the second quarter and 7.4% in the first quarter, but slightly higher than the market expectation of 7.2%. Q3 annulus grew at an annualized rate of 7.8%, down from 8.2% in the second quarter. YoY and QoQ growth also showed a weaker economic momentum in the third quarter (see Figure 1). I predict that the downturn in the real estate market and the economy there are many other negative factors, will make the fourth quarter of the Chinese economy still faces greater downward pressure. But this is also the inevitable result of China’s long-term structural adjustment of the economy. As a whole, exports in the third quarter have recovered