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研究汇率对出口的影响具有重要的理论价值与实践意义.本文以储蓄投资结构失衡情况与出口周期为条件,引入多机制平滑转换回归模型(MRSTR),从一个全新的视角测算和分析汇率对出口的非对称调节作用.研究结果表明:1)在结构性失衡程度严重的情形下,汇率对我国出口的调节作用较弱.伴随结构性失衡得到改善,汇率对我国出口的调节作用增强;2)结构性失衡严重时,出口周期的波动对汇率调节出口的作用影响不是很大.结构性失衡程度较低时,出口周期处于景气阶段时汇率对出口的调节作用显著大于出口不景气阶段.
To study the impact of exchange rate on exports has important theoretical value and practical significance.This paper introduces the multi-mechanism smooth transition regression model (MRSTR) under the conditions of imbalanced investment structure and export cycle, and calculates and analyzes the exchange rate’s impact on exports from a new perspective The results show that: 1) Under the condition of serious structural imbalances, the exchange rate regulates the export of our country weakly.With the improvement of structural imbalance, the exchange rate regulates the export of our country; 2) When the structural imbalance is serious, the fluctuation of export cycle has little effect on the effect of exchange rate adjustment export.When the structural imbalance degree is low, the regulatory effect of exchange rate on export is significantly greater than the export downturn during the boom period.