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基于1978年~2014年主要粮食作物、经济作物出售价格与播种面积数据,运用误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数等方法,实证分析了农产品价格波动对农民种植行为的影响以及粮食作物与经济作物相对价格变动对种植业结构调整的影响。结果显示:价格与播种面积之间存在长期均衡关系,而短期内价格与播种面积协整系统存在反向的自我修正机制,短期波动围绕长期均衡进行调节;平均出售价格的变动对农民种植行为有着显著影响,且粮食作物与经济作物相对价格变动影响了农民的种植选择,进而促进了种植业结构的调整;价格波动的影响存在滞后效应。
Based on the data of the sales price and sown area of main crops, cash crops from 1978 to 2014, the paper uses the error correction model and impulse response function to analyze the impact of agricultural product price fluctuation on farmer planting behavior and the relative prices of grain crops and cash crops Impact of changes on the adjustment of planting structure. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between price and sown area, but there is an inverse self-correction mechanism between prices and sowing area co-integration system in the short term. Short-term fluctuations are adjusted around long-term equilibrium. Changes in average selling price have peasant planting behavior And the relative price changes of food crops and cash crops affected farmers’ planting options, which in turn promoted the adjustment of planting structure. The effect of price fluctuation lagged.