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科学、准确的评估区域风能的开发潜力及其空间分布状况是风能资源开发的一项重要基础性工作。本文应用GIS手段建立了一套简单有效的评估区域陆地风能资源的方法。利用福建省的23个气象站30年的日均气象数据,应用趋势面分析和普通克吕格插值结合的混合插值方法,计算得到空间分辨率为1km×1km的年平均风速的空间分布数据。以此数据集为基础,结合研究区的DEM和土地利用等地理限制因素,分别评估了距地面50m、80m和100m高度上的风能开发的技术潜力及发电经济成本。结果发现:福建省在三个高度上风电的适宜开发面积都在1万km2以上,主要集中分布在东部沿海一带。选择三种目前主流的风电机组作为参考风机,估算结果显示,福建省陆上风电的总装机容量可达187～245GW,年均发电量约为2010年福建省全社会总用电量的4到5倍。同时,风能的单位发电成本在(0.13～0.76)元/kW.h之间,风况条件较好的沿海地区风电的经济性优势显著,应作为优先开发区域。
Scientific and accurate assessment of regional wind energy development potential and its spatial distribution of wind energy resources development is an important basis for the work. In this paper, a set of simple and effective methods to evaluate the regional wind resources in the terrain is established by means of GIS. Based on the 30-year average daily meteorological data of 23 weather stations in Fujian Province, spatial distribution data of annual average wind speed with spatial resolution of 1km × 1km are obtained by means of hybrid interpolation combining trend surface analysis and ordinary Kriging interpolation. Based on this dataset, combined with the geographical constraints such as DEM and land use in the study area, the potential of wind energy development and the cost of generating electricity at 50m, 80m and 100m above the ground were evaluated respectively. The results show that the suitable area of wind power development in Fujian Province is more than 10,000 km2 at three levels, mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas. Three kinds of current mainstream wind turbines are selected as reference fans. The estimation results show that the total installed capacity of onshore wind power in Fujian Province can reach 187-245 GW, with an average annual generating capacity of about 4 to 10% of the total social electricity consumption of Fujian Province in 2010 5 times. Meanwhile, the unit cost of generating wind power is between (0.13 and 0.76) Yuan / kWh. The economic advantages of wind power in the coastal areas with good wind conditions are significant and should be given priority as the development area.