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近年来的全球失衡突出表现在美国持续收支逆差和新兴市场国家以及石油输出国持续顺差之间的矛盾,但是传统理论无法完全解释这一失衡现象。基于金融全球化加深的事实,我们重点考察金融发展是否加剧了国际收支失衡。我们将金融发展对国际收支失衡的影响按照传导机制的思路进行解释,并利用1994～2004年81个国家的数据进行了全球范围的实证研究,我们发现,这种传导机制的作用是非常显著的,并且这种显著性受制于各国的政府治理发展状况,所以传导作用因国而异,在发达国家、东亚新兴市场以及其他发展中国家的影响不同。因此,单个国家(如中国)并不是导致当前失衡的主要原因,失衡的中国责任论是不成立的。
The global imbalances of recent years have been highlighted by the persistent deficit in the United States and the conflict between emerging market countries and the persistent surplus of oil-exporting countries. However, the traditional theory can not fully explain this imbalance. Based on the fact that financial globalization deepens, we focus on whether financial development aggravates the imbalance in the international payments. We explain the impact of financial development on the imbalance of international payments according to the transmission mechanism and use the data of 81 countries from 1994 to 2004 for a worldwide empirical study. We find that this transmission mechanism plays a very significant role , And this salience is subject to the development of government governance in various countries. Therefore, the role of conduction varies from one country to another, with different impacts in developed countries, emerging markets in East Asia and other developing countries. Therefore, a single country (such as China) is not the main reason leading to the current imbalance. The unbalanced theory of China’s responsibility is not established.