论文部分内容阅读
目的介绍层次分析法在专家德尔菲法评价指标体系建立中的应用。方法以某传染病的流行风险评估为示例,应用德尔菲法和层次分析法构建目标体系和计算权重。具体计算采用Excel公式,不需要编程,操作方便。结果构建示例的评价指标体系框架,根据德尔菲法获得各评价指标的专家综合评分,应用层次分析法计算得出各评价指标组合权重,并进行一致性检验。结论层次分析法在指标体系建立中与德尔菲法结合应用,既可确定评价指标权重,且可将疾病的多影响因素评价指标数学模型化,得出反映研究目标的数学模型。
Objective To introduce the application of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in the establishment of the evaluation index system of Delphi by experts. Methods Taking the epidemiological risk assessment of an infectious disease as an example, the Delphi method and AHP were used to construct the target system and calculate the weight. Specific calculation using Excel formula, no programming, easy to operate. Results The framework of the evaluation index system was constructed. According to Delphi method, the expert comprehensive score of each evaluation index was obtained. The weight of each evaluation index combination was calculated by AHP, and the consistency test was carried out. Conclusions AHP can be used in conjunction with Delphi method in the establishment of index system, which not only can determine the weight of evaluation index, but also can model the evaluation index of multiple influencing factors and get the mathematical model reflecting the research goal.